BUFFALO, N.Y. — After a mild and mostly dry day on Monday, shower chances will start to push back into the region by the late evening commute. 

The early PM drive should be largely unaffected by any precipitation, but anyone out on the roads around dinnertime and beyond will likely encounter some scattered showers, some of which could contain pockets of heavy rain. Those shower chances will become more widespread as we head into the overnight, with localized downpours and even a few rumbles of thunder possible by early Tuesday morning.

Storm Team 2 has issued a Weather Impact Alert for all of Tuesday in anticipation of the heavy rainfall for the morning commute as well as another round of intense rain, and even severe storms, for the second half of the day. This impact alert will remain in effect through Wednesday evening for any lingering rainfall and subsequent flooding from runoff. 

Even with the morning rainfall, this is not going to knock our temperatures down at all as we head through the rest of the day on Tuesday. 

In fact, our Tuesday morning shower and storm chances are coming ahead of a warm front that is going to allow temperatures to spike as we head into the afternoon and early evening. Everyone is looking at highs at least in the 60s, some could even make a run at 70 degrees by the late afternoon.

Through the midday, we could see a few spotty light showers, but the majority of Tuesday afternoon will be spent in between the warm and cold front, under relatively dry conditions. You should be able to manage a dry lunch hour if you want to try to get outside and enjoy the mild temperatures before the rain returns. Skies will remain largely cloudy for the midday, but any peeks of sunshine we do manage are only going to fuel the warm-up and the eventual storms that are coming for the second half of the day.

By the late afternoon and into the early Tuesday evening, those shower chances will start to make their way back into the region. We’ll see more rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe thanks in part to the added instability from our warm daytime temperatures.

All of Western New York is under at least a marginal risk for severe weather, but those in Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties are under a slightly elevated risk. The primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour, strong enough to knock down trees and power lines. But some hail up to an inch in diameter is also possible. Even the threat of an isolated tornado is not zero; the risk is very low, but be sure you have a way to get alerts in case a tornado warning is issued for your area.  

On top of the threat for severe storms, the heavy rainfall could lead to some river flooding as well as minor flooding across low lying areas. We have already seen a lot of rain this month, the ground is getting saturated, so an additional few inches of rain on Tuesday, even lingering into Wednesday, is enough to cause some issues for those who live in flood-prone locations. 

As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for all of Western New York that will remain in effect through Wednesday evening. Most areas across the region expect to see 1 to 2 inches of rain coming over the next 2 days, but where the heaviest pockets of rain set up, you are more likely to see 2 to 3+ inches of rain out of this system.

Once the cold front comes through Tuesday night, the worst of the storms and heavy rain will be over, but our forecast is far from dry. We’ll continue to see scattered showers throughout the day on Wednesday, especially across the southern tier. The passage of the cold front will also drop down our temperatures. We’ll see highs around 50 degrees early Wednesday morning before those temperatures continue their downward trend through the afternoon and evening; we’ll likely spend most of the day in the low to mid 40s. 

Beyond Wednesday, the rest of this week and the weekend will remain soggy, delivering an impressive stretch of daily rain chances. The one upside: at least our temperatures are going to be back on the mild side. Wednesday will be our coolest day of the week; already by Thursday highs are back into the upper 50s and 60s and that is where they are going to stay for a while, we could even see those highs climb into the 70s early this weekend. 

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