Before the conflict, an economy class ticket on Cathay Pacific from Sydney to London would cost about $1,370.

It now costs more than $2,000 thanks to yet another fuel surcharge – and on some days, it’s over $3,500.

Before the US-Israeli war with Iran started, the global airline industry had forecast record profits of $41 billion for 2026.

But with the price of jet fuel more than doubling, carriers are under pressure and scrambling to cope.

Carriers ranging from Air New Zealand to Vietnam Airlines have started cutting flights.

Korean Air is shifting to “emergency management mode” to deal with the supply crunch.

And the Philippines’ President Ferdinand ‌Marcos has said grounding planes is a “distinct possibility.”

To secure its own supply, China has banned exports of jet fuel.

China’s airlines are also finding opportunity during the crisis, adding thousands of flights to Europe thanks to the country’s ability to bypass the Middle East and access Russian airspace.

Nevertheless, China’s carriers remain exposed to the Iran energy shock.

Earlier this week, local carrier Colorful Guizhou Airlines disclosed a plan to hike fuel surcharges by five times for domestic routes starting April 5.

China’s three biggest state-owned carriers – Air China, China Eastern and China Southern Airlines – are all reporting cautious outlooks for the year.

In its annual report on Monday, China Eastern Airlines said: “The impact of geopolitical conflicts will persist and the overall momentum of global economic growth will remain insufficient.”

According to HSBC, fuel made up 35–38% of the operating expenses for the three Chinese airlines in the first half of the year.

As Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, Asia is vulnerable as the region relies more heavily on oil and gas that transit the strait than other parts of the world.

So while Iran maintains its iron grip on the strait, expect higher fuel costs around the world from Asia to the US, and expect airlines to pass that on to consumers.