Three mantras to ease Phillies fans’ troubled minds after a 3-3 start to the season …

1) Embrace the positive uncertainty of the unknown

Baseball history is full of pitchers who had great MLB debuts and not-so-great careers. That said, I don’t think it’s too early to rethink the Phillies’ upside in the wake of Andrew Painter’s stellar performance against the Nationals on Tuesday.

Consider the recent track record of pitchers who allowed fewer than two runs with eight or more strikeouts in at least five innings in their major league debut. Since 2023, 11 pitchers have done it (besides Painter). Eight of them made their debut before September. Of those eight, four finished the season with an ERA under 3.00. Two of the exceptions were Bryce Miller (Mariners) and Logan Allen (Guardians), both of whom had a significant positive impact.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter sure looked like the one who was promised in his Phillies debut

A quick breakdown:

Tanner Bibee, Guardians, 2023

Final numbers: 2.98 ERA, 142 innings, 25 starts

Starts of 5+ innings, less than 2 runs: 8 (CLE 7-1)

Nolan McLean, Mets, 2025

Final numbers: 2.06 ERA, 48 innings, 8 starts

Starts of 5+ innings, less than 2 runs: 5 (NYM 3-2)

Logan Allen, Guardians, 2023

Final numbers: 3.81 ERA, 125⅓ innings, 24 starts

Starts of 5+ innings, less than 2 runs: 8 (CLE 6-2)

Bryce Miller, Mariners, 2023

Final numbers: 4.32 ERA, 131⅓ innings, 4.32 ERA

Starts of 5+ innings, less than 2 runs: 13 (SEA 10-3)

Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 2024

Final numbers: 2.91 ERA, 173⅓ innings, 29 starts

Starts of 5+ innings, less than 2 runs: 12 (CHC 10-2)

Kodai Senga, Mets, 2023

Final numbers: 2.98 ERA, 166⅓ innings, 29 starts

Starts of 5+ innings, less than 2 runs: 12 (NYM 11-1)

The only two exceptions were Mick Abel last year for the Phillies and Jordan Wicks in 2023 for the Cubs. But neither started more than eight games, and most of them came at the end of the season.

Plus, you have the Brewers’ Logan Henderson, Red Sox’s Connelly Early and Blue Jays’ Trey Yesavage, all of whom excelled in September (Yesavage into October).

So, what can we say about Painter?

Last year, the Phillies led the majors with 65 games where a starter went five or more innings and allowed one or fewer runs, as Painter did on Tuesday. They went 57-8 in those games. In other words, they won only 39 games when a starter didn’t go five or more innings and allow fewer than two runs.

Another key point: Ranger Suárez had 14 starts of five or more innings and fewer than two runs. Only Cristopher Sánchez had more (17).

Is Painter likely to make the Phillies’ rotation better than it was last year? No. But the guy we saw on Tuesday has the potential to make them nearly as good, assuming a full season from Zack Wheeler. That’s important, given the state of the Phillies’ offense.

Speaking of which …

2) The sun always rises higher after April

Half the Phillies’ fan base is ready to put the lineup on the next Artemis mission and wave goodbye. That’s understandable. My favorite fact from the first week of the season: 8.6% of the Phillies runs have been scored by ghost runners. They’ve scored 23 overall, two of which came in the 10th inning, when a team starts with a runner on second base. The Phillies have also scored five of their runs in the ninth inning and two in the eighth. Which means they’ve scored only 14 runs in the first seven innings. Not good. But maybe not as “not good” as you might think.

April baseball requires some perspective. Though 23 runs in six games isn’t ideal, it also isn’t wildly beyond the pale compared to the rest of the league. As of Thursday, half the teams in the majors scored 25 or fewer runs. The Mets and Dodgers both scored 23 runs in their first six games. The Braves scored 24. The Padres scored a whopping 19.

There’s a decent chance one of that group of teams ends up representing the NL in the World Series. There’s no reason to think the Phillies are any less likely to be that team now than they were a week ago.

» READ MORE: Way-too-early Phillies thoughts: A big swing for Bryce Harper, importance of Adolis García’s start, and more

3) Comparison isn’t always the thief of joy

Bo Bichette entered Thursday 3-for-27 with no extra base hits, one walk and eight strikeouts. Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker were a combined 7-for-41 with 14 strikeouts, no home runs, and one extra base hit. It’s tough to draw any conclusions about Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who are a combined 7-for-47 with 15 strikeouts and three home runs. Nor about Alec Bohm, who is 2-for-21 with a home run after an offseason where a lot of people hoped he would be replaced by Bichette. For what it’s worth, Nick Castellanos is 2-for-12 with three strikeouts and a double. Feel free to draw conclusions about that one.

One week into the season, the story is the same as every April. A team will end up where its roster says it should. Nothing about the first week can change that, except for injury. If you want to worry about something, look forward instead of back. Starting April 13, the Phillies have a 13-game stretch with two series apiece against the Cubs and the Braves.