I must take issue with those calling the Toronto Raptors’ loss to the tanktastic Sacramento Kings on Wednesday their worst defeat of the year.

The Raptors lost by 21 in Washington in December. In the same month, they scored 81 points in Brooklyn. At least Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes, the Raptors’ two All-Stars, both played in those games. Ingram didn’t play against the Kings on Wednesday.

Alas, the later you get into the season, the more you understand how much any given win or loss might impact your playoff chances. Before the Raptors suffered back-to-back losses to the Pistons and Kings, they had about an 80 percent chance of finishing fifth or sixth in the Eastern Conference and avoiding the Play-In Tournament, according to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities. Ahead of Thursday’s games, those chances were down to 52.8 percent. Most of the drop was caused by losing a game that the projection systems had all but given them, with old friends Precious Achiuwa and DeMar DeRozan giving them a real April Fools pranking. Mean.

With six games left, the Raptors are in seventh place in the East heading into Friday’s games. Two of those are at home against the Miami Heat; the Raptors won twice in Miami earlier in the season, when the Heat were less healthy than they are now. The Raptors also have games against the Boston Celtics (Sunday) and the New York Knicks (April 10), against whom they are a combined 0-7 with a minus–113 point differential — average margin of defeat, 16.1 points. (Perhaps the Knicks will have nothing to play for by the penultimate game of the season, but they’ll also be staring five or six off days in the face. We don’t know how they’ll tackle the rest vs. rust question, should it come up.)

And then the Raptors play Memphis this Friday and Brooklyn to end the season on April 12. They couldn’t possibly lose those!

Anyway, with six games to go, this seems like a good time to go over the many possibilities that face the Raptors (42-34).

Tiebreakers

Practically speaking, the Raptors will win any two-team tiebreaker except against the 76ers. The Raptors split the season series against Philadelphia (42-34), but the 76ers would win on the strength of their superior divisional record.

The Raptors beat the Hawks (44-33) and Magic (40-36) in their series this season. They tied the Hornets (41-36) and could still tie the Heat (40-37) if Miami beats the Raptors twice next week, but the Raptors will have the superior conference record over both, which is the next tiebreaker.

Things get more complicated in the event of multi-team ties. Until the Raptors lost on Wednesday, a three-way tie for the fifth, sixth and seventh spots between the Raptors, Sixers and Hawks was looking like a realistic possibility. Atlanta would win the Southeast Division in that scenario, so it would win the tiebreaker and finish fifth, while the 76ers would finish sixth because of their advantage over the Raptors. Divisions: They still matter, for some reason.

If a division champion is not in a multi-team tie, the head-to-head record between all of the teams is the first tiebreaker. Division record if the teams are in the same division (not relevant for the Raptors) is next, followed by conference record and then record against playoff teams in the same conference.

Without getting into every scenario, the Raptors are in pretty good shape there, although they still have five conference games left.

Avoiding the Play-In (finishing fifth or sixth)

The teams finishing fifth and sixth will likely play the Knicks and the Cavaliers, although the Knicks could still catch the Celtics to finish second. New York entered Friday’s play 2 1/2 games behind Boston, but if the Knicks win the final game between those two teams, they would likely win the tiebreaker via division record.

Assuming the Hawks and 76ers remain the two most relevant teams in this race, the Raptors’ most likely path to a top-six seed is finishing with a better record than Philadelphia in their final six games. Alternatively, if the Raptors finish with the same record as the Hawks but not the 76ers, they would finish ahead of Atlanta. The Raptors would have to win two more games than the Hawks the rest of the way to catch them, so that scenario is less likely.

Remaining schedules

Philadelphia: Minnesota, Detroit (back to back), at San Antonio, at Houston, at Indiana (back to back), Milwaukee

Atlanta: at Brooklyn, New York, at Cleveland, Cleveland, at Miami

Neither team has an easy schedule, but the Raptors going 3-3 means the 76ers would have to go 2-4 or worse, or Atlanta would have to finish 1-4 or worse. In other words, the Raptors will probably have to go 4-2 to avoid the Play-In — not that it would guarantee anything.

Play-In seeding (7-10 seeds)

The two teams that advance to the playoffs from the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament will likely face Detroit and Boston, who are likely to finish first and second, respectively. The Celtics will probably get the winner of the 7-8 game, leaving the other Play-In team for the Pistons.

The 76ers’ schedule means they could easily fall back into Play-In territory. They could go 2-4, and thus finish 44-38. It would be harder for the Hawks to sink that low, but not impossible.

The 44-win mark is key, though. If the Raptors finish above it, they likely will not fall below the seventh seed, which, at worst, would give them two home games to win one to make the playoffs. Worse than that, and the Raptors have a real chance at finishing eighth and playing on the road in the 7-8 game, or — yikes — falling into the 9-10 game.

As mentioned, the Raptors will win any two-team tiebreaker with any Southeast Division team. Multi-team ties could bring chaos, as Orlando swept its season series with Miami 5-0. The Hornets beat the Magic 3-1, while the Heat beat the Hornets 3-1.

As for the 76ers, they beat the Hornets 2-1, lost to the Heat 2-1 and beat Orlando 2-1.

Remaining schedules

Charlotte: Indiana (back to back), at Minnesota, at Boston, Detroit, at New York

Orlando: at Dallas, at New Orleans, Detroit (back to back), Minnesota, at Chicago, at Boston

Miami: Washington, at Toronto, at Toronto, at Washington (back to back), Atlanta

Chaotic possibilities

There are only three remaining matchups featuring two of the Mid-6. Miami is in all three of them, with two in Toronto and one against the Hawks. The most likely record to cause a four-plus team tie: 44-38. The most likely way to get that: The Heat win both games in Toronto and then lose to the Hawks.

In that scenario, there could be a five-way tie. If that happens, the tie would be broken with the head-to-head record between the five teams. That would result in the following finish.

6. Philadelphia (7-6)
7. Toronto (8-7)
8. Orlando (8-7)
9. Charlotte (7-8)
10. Miami (7-9)

In the case of a four-way tie, excluding Philadelphia:

7. Orlando (7-4)
8. Toronto (6-5)
9. Charlotte (6-6)
10. Miami (5-8)

In the majority of the plausible three-way ties, the Raptors would finish second among the three teams.

There are many other potential scenarios, but they would involve some major upsets, like a team with nothing left to play for defeating a team that needed to win. And that would never happen.