Jade Carter
Given the thus-far glacial pace of Tesla‘s (NASDAQ: TSLA) robotaxi rollout, it’s hard to expect anything dramatic in April. However, the narrative around the stock could change in a positive direction. There are three main catalysts for this change that investors need to keep a close eye on.
These numbers may be released by the time you read this, and the fierce debate around them will be over. A UBS analyst threw the cat among the pigeons in mid-March by projecting Tesla’s deliveries at 345,000 in the first quarter — a figure notably below the analyst consensus of about 365,000.
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It’s also a number receiving some support on the prediction markets platform Polymarket, with implied odds indicating a 62% probability of a figure below 350,000 and only a 27% probability of a figure between 350,000 and 375,000 at the time of writing.
The eventual number is significant because the electric vehicle company had 336,681 deliveries in the first quarter of 2025, and it needs to beat that number handsomely to demonstrate that the sales slowdown in the first half of 2025 came down to the transition to a new Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling model.
CEO Elon Musk has long promised that the dedicated robotaxi vehicle Cybercab will begin volume production in April. During the annual general meeting presentation in early November, Musk promised investors, “I think the rate at which we receive regulatory approval will roughly match the rate of Cybercab production.”
This is a key point because a huge ramp-up in Cybercab production without regulatory approvals (Tesla doesn’t have any at present) would tie up inventory and cash unnecessarily. As such, investors shouldn’t expect too much from the production increase. Still, Tesla’s production of Cybercabs reduces execution risk and focuses investors on the potential value of its robotaxi aspirations.
Tesla recently said it expected to receive approval of supervised full self-driving (FSD) technology in the Netherlands in April. And the Netherlands Vehicle Authority affirmed that Tesla and the authority are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.” Approval in the Netherlands could open a pathway to a green light from the entire European Union, or failing that, approvals on a country-by-country basis.
